Extreme Fire Danger: Victoria Braces for Hot, Windy Conditions and Storms (2026)

Victoria's Dry Conditions and Storms Lead to Extreme Fire Forecast

Victoria is bracing for a challenging day ahead as half the state faces extreme fire conditions, with storms expected to follow a hot and gusty day. Authorities have taken proactive measures by declaring a total fire ban from midnight in several districts, including Wimmera, South West, North Central, Central, West and South Gippsland.

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts a scorching day with temperatures reaching the mid-30s Celsius across much of Victoria. North to north-westerly winds, reaching 30-40 kilometers per hour, will start around the Central Ranges and the Otways in the state's southwest from dawn onwards. Senior meteorologist Briony Macpherson warns that these winds, combined with hot and dry air, will significantly elevate fire dangers.

However, the real danger is anticipated when a cool change brings severe thunderstorms, lightning strikes, and damaging winds of up to 90 kph in some areas. While the wind change will provide some temperature relief, dropping temperatures by 10 degrees in a short time, particularly in Melbourne, it will also make firefighting efforts more challenging if any fires ignite.

The change is expected to arrive in the far southwest of the state early in the afternoon and move through western districts, reaching Mildura, Ballarat, and Geelong around 5 pm. It will then make its way through Melbourne between 6 and 8 pm, followed by the northern parts of the state and Gippsland overnight.

Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch expresses concern for all areas from Victoria's west through to West and South Gippsland, including grasslands between Melbourne's northwest suburbs and Geelong, extending to the Inverleigh area. He warns that fast-moving fires could break out near populated areas, similar to the Clarkfield blaze that destroyed and damaged caravans in a storage facility north-east of Sunbury on Friday.

With a significant amount of grassland fire load and dry conditions across the state, Wiebusch emphasizes that Victoria remains a tinderbox. Fire Rescue Victoria Commissioner Gavin Freeman stresses the importance of all Victorians in fire-prone areas, including towns and cities, reviewing their bushfire plans for the day ahead.

Freeman advises, 'If you're undertaking any outdoor activities, consider whether they could potentially start a fire. If the answer is yes, it's best to avoid them.'

V/Line, the regional rail operator, has announced that services will run on extreme heat timetables on the Ararat, Ballarat, Geelong, Maryborough, Seymour, Shepparton, and Warrnambool lines. This includes slower train speeds and some services being replaced by air-conditioned buses. Partial extreme heat timetables will apply to the Bendigo, Echuca, and Swan Hill lines, with speed restrictions potentially implemented on other lines if temperatures exceed 36C.

Despite the ongoing challenges, there's a glimmer of hope as Commissioner Wiebusch reveals that the Walwa bushfire in northeast Victoria and the destructive Longwood blaze in central Victoria, which have been raging for over a month, have now been brought under control. Community recovery operations are underway, with teams from Disaster Relief Australia and BlazeAid assisting in Longwood and Harcourt.

The only remaining blaze, in the Otways, is expected to be contained by the end of the week, according to Wiebusch.

Extreme Fire Danger: Victoria Braces for Hot, Windy Conditions and Storms (2026)

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